asianwintergames2022|贵州茅台(600519)：收入表现超市场预期 税金占比导致利润率波动

[performance] the operating income / return net profit / non-return net profit of 2024Q1 Company is 457% respectively.Asianwintergames2022. 76/240Asianwintergames2022.6516.240.51 billion yuan (yoy+18.11%/+15.73%/+15.75%). [dividend rate] according to previous annual reports, the dividend rate fell from 87.30% in 22 years to 51.90% in 23 years. The pace of 24Q1 payback / delivery accelerated, and the revenue share of Maotai liquor was stable. 24Q1's liquor business income is 45.643 billion yuan (yoy+17.83%), Maotai liquor / series liquor business income is 39.707 billion yuan (yoy+17.75%/+18.39%), of which Maotai liquor revenue accounts for-0.06% to 86.99%. We thinkAsianwintergames2022First, Maotai liquor income growth performance is excellent, or the main reasonAsianwintergames2022The ex-factory price of ① in November 23 has been increased by about 20%; the volume of ② non-standard products is still expected to achieve double-digit growth. Looking forward to 2024: Guizhou Moutai work conference network information shows that 24-year Moutai may launch 4.5WT or so, while focusing on increasing the market investment of boutique / zodiac / small-size Moutai / 24 solar terms / Liquor. Second, the increase in the revenue share of series wine decreased compared with the same period last year, or the main reason: the growth rate of 23Q1 series wine was significantly affected by the increase of 1935 (yoy+46.30%). Under the accelerated volume of 24Q1 series wine, the change of income share was stable. The return net profit margin of 24Q1 decreases slightly, or it is mainly due to the change of channel structure-tax rate. The year-on-year change in 24Q1's gross profit margin / net profit rate is + 0.02 pesque 1.18% to 92.61% pesque 54.36% (parent net interest rate is from-1.04% to 51.77%). We think that the increase in the profit side of the company is weak, or the main reason: ① 24Q1 taxes and surcharges account for about 15.73% of income. The growth rate of ② distribution channel is faster than that of direct sales channel. Specifically, the revenue of 24Q1 wholesale agent / direct sales is 26.324 billion yuan (yoy+25.78%/+8.49%) respectively, and the proportion of direct sales revenue is-3.64% year-on-year to 42.33%, of which "I Maotai" revenue is + 8.96% to 5.343 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. In addition, the number of 24Q1 dealers changed from + 15 to 2203 compared with the same period last year, with a single dealer size of 1194.91 million yuan (yoy+24.92%). The operating cash flow is excellent, and the reservoir is still abundant. ① 24Q1 sales expense rate / management expense rate (including R & D) changes from 0.53% to 2.45%; ② operating cash flow is 9.187 billion yuan (yoy+75.17%), mainly due to the increase in sales and cash flow, the net increase in deposits in the central bank and interbank funds in the cash outflow of operating activities. ③ contract liabilities + other current liabilities year-on-year / month-on-month changes + 13.58 Meltel 5.279 billion yuan to 10.669 billion yuan; ④ sales of goods cash 46.257 billion yuan (yoy+29.34%). Investment suggestion: considering the new Maotai liquor launch / 24-year volume increase (24-year Maotai liquor or 4.5WT) + Feitian price increase, we expect the follow-up performance to be stable; although the Feitian wholesale price is subject to short-term fluctuations in supply-side factors, due to the company's strong management capabilities, we still expect the wholesale price to remain stable throughout the year. We estimate that the company's operating income for 24-26 years will be 1749.5 picket 2301.6 billion yuan (up 16% and 15%) respectively (up 16% and 15%), and the return net profit will be 870.3% and 1012.0 billion yuan respectively (up 16% and 16% respectively), corresponding to 25X/21X/18X. Risk tips: macroeconomic growth is not as expected; competition in the industry is intensified; food safety problems; mobile sales in direct sales channels are not as expected. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.

[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.